Man Utd v Roma: three Champions League bets backed by the latest trends

Football betting analyst Frank Monkhouse is backing Roma to avoid defeat when they visit Manchester United in the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, with Donyell Malen also tipped to score.

It is gameweek four and Manchester United have home advantage at Old Trafford, but Michael Carrick’s side are struggling domestically and sit much closer to the Premier League relegation zone than the top four. Their European record is also poor, with one victory and two defeats.

Roma are six places higher in their domestic league and claimed their first Champions League win at the third attempt. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side will be targeting a second successive victory.

Recommended bets

- Roma or draw – 4/7 (bet365) - Over 2.5 goals – 1/2 (bet365) - Donyell Malen to score – 6/5 (bet365)

Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Gamble Aware 18+.

Roma tipped to avoid defeat

Manchester United have won only two of their past 10 matches in this competition, according to Opta Stats, losing seven and drawing one.

They opened this campaign with a 4-0 home victory over Sabah FK, but defeats by Atletico Madrid and Como have followed. The Red Devils are 21st in the table, level on points with RB Leipzig, who are 30th.

United have also failed to win any of their four home matches in all competitions since beating Sabah FK. They lost 1-0 in the Manchester Derby, were beaten 3-2 by Brighton, drew 1-1 with Tottenham and then lost 3-0 to Bournemouth.

Roma drew 3-3 away to Napoli in Serie A and drew 1-1 at Fenerbahce in this competition. The recommendation is therefore the double-chance market, where a Roma win or draw produces a profit.

Tip: Roma or draw – 4/7 (bet365)

Goals expected at Old Trafford

The last three meetings between the clubs have all produced more than 2.5 goals. Manchester United won 3-2 in 2014 and 6-2 in 2021, before Roma won the return meeting 3-2 later that year.

Roma’s recent Champions League results include a 1-1 draw with Fenerbahce, a 4-3 defeat by Real Madrid and a 4-0 victory over Slovan Bratislava. United beat Sabah FK 4-0, lost 2-0 at Atletico Madrid and were beaten 4-1 at Como.

Manchester United’s two October home matches ended with an aggregate score of 1-4. Their three home fixtures in September produced six goals for and four against.

Roma have scored eight goals in this season’s competition, while the two sides have scored 13 and conceded 11 between them. The recommendation is for at least three goals, regardless of which team scores them.

Tip: Over 2.5 goals – 1/2 (bet365)

Malen backed to score

The final selection is Roma forward Donyell Malen in the anytime goalscorer market, rather than backing him to score first.

The Dutch striker has scored three goals and supplied two assists in three Champions League appearances, giving him five goal contributions. Only four other players can match that total.

Malen’s tally equals his personal best in a major European campaign, having also recorded five goal contributions for PSV in the 2020/21 UEFA Europa League. He has also registered the joint-most touches in the opposition box this season.

Tip: Malen to score – 6/5 (bet365)

The match odds are Manchester United 13/10, a draw 14/5 and Roma 17/10.